Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach Pundit Shea Lopez

ASP 2014 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach Pundit Shea Lopez

Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach Pundit Shea Lopez

Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach Pundit Shea Lopez

Shea Lopez makes his Fantasy Surfer picks for the 2014 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach.

Wilko has been quiet, too quiet. With plenty of talent, Wilko appears to be in a sort of adjustment period with a new approach to competition. If he finds his rhythm and routinely loads up that big backhand blast—the one that is arguably the most impressive backhand turn from a goofyfooter on Tour—he will win heats at Bells. -more-
– Shea Lopez

Avg pts (power waves*)
Kelly Slater $12,250,000 146
Jordy Smith $10,000,000 106
Michel Bourez $8,250,000 102
John John Florence $6,500,000 76
Bede Durbidge $5,750,000 96
Matt Wilkinson $3,750,000 66
Owen Wright $3,500,000 75
Dion Atkinson $3,000,000 65
Total: $53,000,000 732
*Power waves: Snapper 2013/2014, Bells 2012/2013, Margaret River 2014

Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach Pundit Picks: The Blind Team

2014 ASP Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach Pundit Picks The Blind Team

2014 ASP Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach Pundit Picks The Blind Team

Surfer Stats

Shea Lopez, Derek Rielly, Nick Carroll and the other pundits offer great insight into the surfers when offering their pundit picks. We’re going to do it differently. For our Fantasy Surfer pundit picks, we look at the numbers and not the surfers’ names. We go in blind. For Bells, we picked our team based on past results in power waves (vs performance or barrels). For our personal club teams, we pick based on our guts and who we think are in form, but for these picks below, we remove all of the mind games. Here you go. Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach Pundit Picks: The Blind Team.

Avg pts (power waves*)
Kelly Slater $12,250,000 146
Nat Young $9,000,000 121
Adriano De Souza $8,250,000 119
Bede Burbidge $5,750,000 96
Jeremy Flores $5,000,000 90
Jadson Andre $4,500,000 81
Owen Wright $3,250,000 75
wildcard $1,500,000 58
Total: $49,500,000 786
Wave types…
Barrels: Pipe 2012/2103, Portugal 2012/2013, France 2012, Tahiti 2012/2013, Bali 2013, Fiji 2012/2013
Performance: Steamer Lane 2013, France 2013, Trestles 2012/2013, Rio 2012/2013, Snapper 2012
*Power: Snapper 2013/2014, Bells 2012/2013, Margaret River 2014

Drug Aware Margaret River Pro: Blind Team Results

ASP Drug Aware Margaret River Pro: Blind Team Results 2014

ASP Drug Aware Margaret River Pro: Blind Team Results 2014

Surfer Stats

Before the Drug Aware Margaret River Pro, we picked our aspwedge Fantasy Surfer team without looking at the names–we only used past results (see the graph). We call these our blind picks. Based on the forecast, we picked this team based on past performance wave results. The last day was clearly wave for the power surfers, and the day at The Box favoured the barrel-riders. Even still, the team beat all of our club teams (which based on our results, wasn’t a huge feat), and did score a respectable 840.

*Avg FS pts Margs pts
Taj Burrow $10,500,000 147 86
Jordy Smith $9,500,000 130 127
Adriano De Souza $8,250,000 133 102
Michel Bourez $7,250,000 113 200
Filipe Toledo $6,000,000 118 103
Travis Logie $3,250,000 92 38
Owen Wright $3,250,000 82 83
Yadin Nicol $1,500,000 66 101
Total: $49,500,000 881 840

*based on WCT performance wave results from 2012-2014

Drug Aware Margaret River Pro Picks: By The Numbers

Drug Aware Margaret River Pro Picks: By The Numbers

Drug Aware Margaret River Pro Picks: By The Numbers

Surfer Stats

[Original post: March 30] This year, we’re going to run an experiment where we pick the aspwedge Fantasy Surfer team based on past results. For our club teams, we make our picks using our guts and the biases that come along with that. But for these posts, we’re picking without looking at the surfers’ names. Instead, we’re using the numbers that generate the graphs on the Surfers page. We’ve “typed” each wave barrel, performance or power (see below) and will fill the aspwedge team with the surfers who have averaged the highest on that type of wave over the past two seasons (plus this season so far). We’ll try to maximize the overall average for the amount of money we have leaving $1,500,000 for a wildcard. For the Drug Aware Margaret River Pro, we’re typing it as a “power wave”. With that, here is the aspwedge “by the numbers” team:

[UPDATE: April 1] With the forecast calling for smaller waves, we’re switching to typing Margs as a “performance wave” and have adjusted our team accordingly.

New team (based on performance wave results):

Avg pts
Taj Burrow $10,500,000 147
Jordy Smith $9,500,000 130
Adriano De Souza $8,250,000 133
Michel Bourez $7,250,000 113
Filipe Toledo $6,000,000 118
Travis Logie $3,250,000 92
Owen Wright $3,250,000 82
Yadin Nicol $1,500,000 66
Total: $49,500,000 881

Old team (based on power wave results):

Avg pts
Kelly Slater $11,750,000 145
Joel Parkinson $11,750,000 145
Adriano De Souza $8,250,000 123
Jeremy Flores $5,750,000 102
Mitch Crews $4,500,000 100
Dion Atkinson $3,250,000 83
Owen Wright $3,250,000 73
Yadin Nicol $1,500,000 66
Total: $50,000,000 837

Wave types…
Barrels: Pipe 2012/2103, Portugal 2012/2013, France 2012, Tahiti 2012/2013, Bali 2013, Fiji 2012/2013
Performance: Steamer Lane 2013, France 2013, Trestles 2012/2013, Rio 2012/2013, Snapper 2012
Power: Snapper 2013/2014, Bells 2012/2013

Drug Aware Margaret River Pro Pundit Shea Lopez

Drug Aware Margaret River Pro Pundit Shea Lopez ASP 2014

ASP Drug Aware Margaret River Pro Pundit Shea Lopez

Shea Lopez’ picks for Margaret River

Shea Lopez makes his Fantasy Surfer picks for the 2014 ASP Drug Aware Margaret River Pro.

Experience is worth its weight in gold at Margaret River, and experience will determine who does well and who spends their heat getting caught inside, bouncing off the reef en route to a 36th-place finish. In this open-ocean locale, power surfing will seize the day. Think Occy and Luke Egan. If either of them were competing today, they would be the favorites. -more-
– Shea Lopez

Drug Aware Margaret River Pro Pundit Picks Cheat Sheet

2014 ASP Drug Aware Margaret River Pro Pundit Picks Cheat Sheet

Drug Aware Margaret River Pro Pundit Picks Cheat Sheet

Red Bull Margaret River Cheat Sheet

Red Bull has put together a great list of pundit picks for the Drug Aware Margaret River Pro including from Derek Rielly, Travis Ferre, Marcus Sanders and Chris Binns.

Taj Burrow, almost 36 years old now, has spent his life in WA’s south-west thanks to American parents who took the old adage ‘go west’ to its most extreme geographical point. This year he’ll win and it will come more easily than he might believe possible, even with a slight shade of mockery.
– Derek Rielly, Stab magazine

Let’s go out on a limb. I’m honestly predicting Gabriel Medina to go back to back. He’s got it all figured out. All of it.
– Travis Ferre, What Youth

Jordy Smith. He’s there early with a big quiver up to 6ft 10in. He’s got very long arms. A solid rail. He’s motivated. As long as he can avoid the dreaded Marg’s interference off the peak, he’ll take it home to South Africa.
– Marcus Sanders, Surfline

Darkhorse? Artiz Aranburu slays big water. When Margarets looks like Sunset, Aritz will be gobbling golden boys en route to the podium. But ignore if the swell fails to front.
– Chris Binns, Ex-Editor of Surfing Life

Drug Aware Margaret River Pro Pundit Analysis by Nick Carroll

Drug Aware Margaret River Pro Pundit Analysis by Nick Carroll to help with Fantasy Surfer.

Drug Aware Margaret River Pro Pundit analysis Nick Carroll 2014

analysis by Nick Carroll

Nick Carroll is a long time surfer and surf writer including a book on his brother the 1983 & 1984 World Tour Champion: TC, the story of Tom Carroll. Here Nick gives his pundit analysis of what to expect at the ASP Drug Aware Margaret River Pro 2014 for Surfing Life.

It’s still just the start of a long 2014 and it’s a major venue change from Snapper, so we can expect to see some surprising form and results switches. Obviously there’ll be eyes on Gabriel Medina and Joel Parkinson after their big finale two weeks ago, but other than Snapper’s top four, major threats will include Nat Young –whose Quik Pro form was dazzling and who has an instinctive connection with cool-water reef waves –and we suspect Owen Wright, who may not yet feel fully confident of his ability to win a WCT again but whose skills look if anything a fraction stronger than pre-injury. We also feel that Julian Wilson will be carrying over some emotional energy from his loss at Snapper and may bring something extra to his heats as a result. -more-
– Nick Carroll

If you are interested in Nick’s book or other surf-inspired books, check out our Books page.

Drug Aware Margaret River Pro Pundit Picks by Ross Williams

2014 ASP Drug Aware Margaret River Pro Pundit Picks by Ross Williams

Ross Williams winning the Clash of Legends in Hawaii 2011

Ross gives his picks for Margaret River

Ross Williams starred in Taylor Steele’s Momentum Series and became a professional surfer in 1990. He spent 10 years on the World Tour and four times ranked in the Top 16. Ross gives his ASP Fantasy Surfing Drug Aware Margaret River Pro 2014 pundit picks.

If you are looking to get some secure points in the bank, Nat is your boy. Consistency is only part of the equation for this athlete. Nat conjures up a crazy cocktail of power and flare that seems to detonate anyone in his path in a repeatable fashion. -more-
– Ross Williams

Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast Pundit Picks by Shea Lopez

2014 ASP Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast Pundit Picks

Shea Lopez was on the World Tour for 10 years until a horrific knee injury at Pipe sidelined him in 2005. Here are his Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast 2014 pundit picks:

http://www.surfermag.com/features/snapper-picks/

Here’s a video of him talking about his injury (warning…not for the faint of heart):

Shea Lopez career ending knee injury at Pipe.

Shea Lopez’s career ending knee injury at Pipe.