Drug Aware Margaret River Pro Picks: By The Numbers

Drug Aware Margaret River Pro Picks: By The Numbers

Drug Aware Margaret River Pro Picks: By The Numbers

Surfer Stats

[Original post: March 30] This year, we’re going to run an experiment where we pick the aspwedge Fantasy Surfer team based on past results. For our club teams, we make our picks using our guts and the biases that come along with that. But for these posts, we’re picking without looking at the surfers’ names. Instead, we’re using the numbers that generate the graphs on the Surfers page. We’ve “typed” each wave barrel, performance or power (see below) and will fill the aspwedge team with the surfers who have averaged the highest on that type of wave over the past two seasons (plus this season so far). We’ll try to maximize the overall average for the amount of money we have leaving $1,500,000 for a wildcard. For the Drug Aware Margaret River Pro, we’re typing it as a “power wave”. With that, here is the aspwedge “by the numbers” team:

[UPDATE: April 1] With the forecast calling for smaller waves, we’re switching to typing Margs as a “performance wave” and have adjusted our team accordingly.

New team (based on performance wave results):

Avg pts
Taj Burrow $10,500,000 147
Jordy Smith $9,500,000 130
Adriano De Souza $8,250,000 133
Michel Bourez $7,250,000 113
Filipe Toledo $6,000,000 118
Travis Logie $3,250,000 92
Owen Wright $3,250,000 82
Yadin Nicol $1,500,000 66
Total: $49,500,000 881

Old team (based on power wave results):

Avg pts
Kelly Slater $11,750,000 145
Joel Parkinson $11,750,000 145
Adriano De Souza $8,250,000 123
Jeremy Flores $5,750,000 102
Mitch Crews $4,500,000 100
Dion Atkinson $3,250,000 83
Owen Wright $3,250,000 73
Yadin Nicol $1,500,000 66
Total: $50,000,000 837

Wave types…
Barrels: Pipe 2012/2103, Portugal 2012/2013, France 2012, Tahiti 2012/2013, Bali 2013, Fiji 2012/2013
Performance: Steamer Lane 2013, France 2013, Trestles 2012/2013, Rio 2012/2013, Snapper 2012
Power: Snapper 2013/2014, Bells 2012/2013